von Foerster 'Doomsday' Prediction Revisited or A Physicist's View of Development Economics

In 1960, Science published an influential paper by Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora, and Lawrence W. Amiot, entitled “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026.” The authors compiled estimates of the world’s human population over millennia and identified superexponential growth dynamics, with a projected singularity in 2026. As we approach this date, it is a particularly timely moment to analyze world population growth and revisit von Foerster’s empirical prediction.

Our analysis is based on a model of coupled nonlinear equations describing the joint dynamics of world population and GDP per capita. Unlike many similar models, our model is carefully calibrated against historical databases of economic and demographic indicators for numerous countries. We obtain a quantitative understanding of world population growth, including the transition from the Malthusian-trap regime to modern growth regimes. We also make cautious extrapolations into the future.